Saturday, November 29, 2008

November 2008: Booked

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$5/10

This is the graph of my profits since my last post.

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Melbourne was sick other than running KK into AA at 500nl with a bunch of live morons in the Crown poker room. We went to JJ's Grille and Rockpool Grille in the Crown Towers. I've heard good things about this NOBU place but I know there's one in Vegas and I didn't feel like asian food at the time.


These are the two biggest pots I've won/lost during this MSNL stake...both happened in the past 48 hours. I should've folded the KK i guess but whatever....nobody else gets coolered like that on the one fucking 1knl table running on FTP.


Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

Villa15 (SB): $3,197
LittleKidLover5 (BB): $1,496
bennyf85 (UTG): $1,017
Hero (UTG+1): $1,111
postdavid (UTG+2): $1,185.50
MrDankumz (MP1): $845.50
maxton2011 (MP2): $1,572.25
R0b5ter (CO): $1,000
Bunkbeds (BTN): $4,211.25

Pre-Flop: Kh Ks dealt to Hero (UTG+1)
bennyf85 calls $10, Hero calls $10, postdavid raises to $40, MrDankumz folds, maxton2011 calls $40, R0b5ter folds, Bunkbeds calls $40, Villa15 folds, LittleKidLover5 calls $30, bennyf85 calls $30, Hero raises to $190, postdavid raises to $1,185.50 and is All-In, 4 folds, Hero calls $921 and is All-In

Flop: ($2,387) 3h Td Ac (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($2,387) Th (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($2,387) 5c (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $2,387 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed Kh Ks (two pair, Kings and Tens) and LOST (-$1,111 NET)
postdavid showed As Ad (a full house, Aces full of Tens) and WON $2,384 (+$1,273 NET)






Full Tilt Poker, $5/$10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

josh3336 (BTN): $1,040
mnm472 (SB): $2,559
comingin2u (BB): $990
Kid_Forum (UTG): $1,183
JPhil007 (MP): $1,758
Hero (CO): $1,207

Pre-Flop: Ad Ah dealt to Hero (CO)
Kid_Forum raises to $25, JPhil007 folds, Hero raises to $90, 3 folds, Kid_Forum raises to $222, Hero raises to $425, Kid_Forum raises to $1,183 and is All-In, Hero calls $758

Flop: ($2,381) Jc 5h 9s (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($2,381) 4s (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($2,381) 8h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $2,381 Pot ($3 Rake)
Kid_Forum showed Ks As (Ace King high) and LOST (-$1,183 NET)
Hero showed Ad Ah (a pair of Aces) and WON $2,378 (+$1,195 NET)

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Crown Towers Crystal Club

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I'm on a 3k downswing, mostly from fucking 600nl, so I decided to tilt book flights and hotel room. The flights are mad cheap and only like $340 AUD for both round trip tickets (Ptero and I) which ends up being only like approx 61% of that price to us in USD$. Ship it.

We're about a 20 minute drive to the small airport in Newcastle where we live and the flight takes between 1 and 1.5 hours. We'll be leaving Tuesday night at 8 (16 hours earlier into Mon in the US) flying into Melbourne airport which is about the same 20 minute taxi ride as Newcastle.

The Crown Casino is more of a complex of buildings than most casinos. The hotel space is broken into two separate buildings called the Crown Promenade and the Crown Towers. From the prices and the website you can see that the Towers are the luxury rooms. On the 27th floor of the Towers is the Crystal Club.

The Crystal Club is the VIP lounge for anyone staying in the Crown Towers. Obviously it costs more $ to have a room with access to the lounge but it's open 24 hours (including the bar) and serves breakfast and lunch for free to Crystal Club members.

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The Crystal Club has a sick view of the water and the city of Melbourne and will definitely be a perfect spot to put in a session with my laptop on a lounge sitting against those windows. Ship the fucking megaballer boomswitch one time...

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Deepstack

I have never bought into 400nl DS for more than 100bb.



Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $412.10
UTG+2: $184
MP1: $221.50
MP2: $800
Hero (CO): $742.30
BTN: $990.10
SB: $262
BB: $1,006.40
UTG: $192

Pre-Flop: Qs Js dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to $8, 2 folds, MP1 calls $8, MP2 calls $8, Hero calls $8, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($44) 8s As 9c (5 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 bets $20, MP2 calls $20, Hero calls $20, 2 folds

Turn: ($104) Th (3 Players)
MP1 bets $60, MP2 calls $60, Hero calls $60

River: ($284) 5d (3 Players)
MP1 bets $60, MP2 raises to $253, Hero raises to $654.30 and is All-In, MP1 calls $73.50 and is All-In, MP2 calls $401.30

Results: $1,726.10 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP1 mucked 4s Ad (a pair of Aces) and LOST (-$221.50 NET)
MP2 mucked 6h 7h (a straight, Ten high) and LOST (-$742.30 NET)
Hero showed Qs Js (a straight, Queen high) and WON $1,723.10 (+$980.80 NET)

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

$20,000

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Scandinavians

This hand is wierd because I really can't remember the last time (if any ever...seriously) that I picked off a light utg limp/3bet. This particular spot was just more likely for him to be taking a playmaster line for a number of reasons. All the fish in the hand had folded and were out of the pot. I'm on the button (most obv steal position range) and the blinds are Rika and another winning 18/12 reg. I can't say for sure exactly how that impacted the way the hand played out because I don't know what the villain is thinking yet but it's important to keep everything in mind.

Before I leave preflop I want to say for the record I think the limp/3bet utg is bad. I think it's an out-dated play and it's something n00bs do and usually don't even know why they do it. The problem is that balancing your utg limp/3bet range creates a number of problems with the most important being forced to play a 3bet pot out of position against everyone but the blinds. The blinds are going to obviously be the worst range to limp/3bet because they are opening a tighter range than the mid-late position open/isolation raise.





The flop played out unusual too. I flop 2nd pair with an overcard and a 3 flush to the nuts and the utg limp/3b range decides to mash pot. I don't have any specific history with this guy but we've played together for 500+ hands and at this level I assume these types of players (decent stats and sample size) are at least somewhat aware of who I am.

The mash pot on the flop is definitely something stupid people do to regs and each other but it's just not normal for a reg to do to another reg. Once he pots the flop and the turn really the only thing I'm worried about is if he is capable of leveling me. Is he capable of knowing that I know he would never do this with the strong end of his range. Also though, is he capable of firing the 2nd barrel with what would essentially need to be complete air.

I called on the flop pretty fast (which also is a factor to think about when he pots the turn) and when he insta bet pot on the turn, completely committing himself, it's really just up for me to decide if he is ever leveling me and is he capable of doing with with air. I tend to never believe someone is capable of leveling me by knowing that I know he knows he wouldn't be mashing pot with the top end of his range unless they give me a reason to think that. I take a LOT of notes ESPECIALLY in big pots and I literally use almost every color on the FTP notes to distinguish different categories of players (especially helpful when looking at tables from the lobby).


On the turn I had about 5 seconds left in my timebank when I decided to check his location. He's from the Netherlands. With everything I had before this to doubt I was behind and now this....I snap clicked call with 1 second left. The fact that he is from the Netherlands (so his perception of poker) was enough additional information to decide he had the capability to follow through repping a big hand with a 2nd barrel.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Itinerary

It's Monday November 17th here in Newcastle, Australia and a lot of shit has happened in the last 48 hours.

I passed the 20k profits mark for this month (including rakeback) and somehow Ptero has won both a PCA package and an APPT Sydney package. Nothing I can say does justice to how insane that is. He won the PCA package on a single bullet (double buyin+add-on) in a $33r where only 1st got a package. The day before that he had finished runner up for a package to APPT Sydney but don't feel bad...two days later (today) he got heads-up and took down that package too.

Which brings me to my schedule for the next couple months. Just today I realized how short a time I have left her in Australia. It's been a great time and an excellent use of my time and rent money to gain rare perspective to use later (probly to make $).


Two weeks from tomorrow is December 2nd. The night before that we will be taking the 3 hour $18 train ride (with some insanely sick views I mentioned before I think) to spend the next 5 days in a PokerStars suite at the Star City Casino in Sydney, Australia. I'm definitely looking forward to playing some live again, it's been a while. After Vegas I had enough of the slow live games for a while but hourly winrate I can make at a 500nl Star City game is definitely enough to look forward to.

This is the plan as of now.....



December 2nd - Star City Casino for the APPT Sydney Main Event

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December 7th - Back to the townhouse in Newcastle on Merewether Beach to grind out MSNL on FTP

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Dec. 18th - Back to Sydney until 4pm Dec 20th when we leave on a flight to Boston from Sydney through San Fransisco.

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December 20th - Arrive in Boston, MA to spend the holidays with family and as of now I'll be attending the New Years Eve party at Shrine in the MGM Grand at Foxwoods.

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Jan. 5th - I'm not 100% sure if I'm going to be in the mood for more travel at this point but with a JetBlue roundtrip ticket being only like 3-400$ and only a 4 hour trip I'll probly go. Atlantis Resort and Casino for the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure in the Bahamas.

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Jan 10th - Leave Atlantis for Fort Myers, Florida to spend time with my mother's parents at their house in Naples, Florida.


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As from then on I really don't know. I will be staying with family until I decide. I'm either going to get this 2 bedroom rooftop penthouse apartment in Natick, MA for 9 months and only spend a couple weeks or a month in Vegas for the summer or I'll just stay with family until I move out to Vegas in the summer...possibly for good.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Crush

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Edit* November updated

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Friday, November 14, 2008

Teh G L

I'm on a 15k upswing....too busy smoking blunts watching videos on YouTube to post anything else.




Edit* ship those winrates

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2.2k day

Look at the difference between the number of hands and the profits between this post and the last. Fridays ftw.


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Thursday, November 13, 2008

PT2: First 1/2 November

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I should elaborate on this considering how much information there is for the trained eye but I just don't feel like it right now and I doubt I'll come back to it. What I will say is that I am as surprised to see my major 3 stats VPIP/PFR/TAF to be the way they are after running mostly 15/12/3 at lower stakes FR. I think it's mostly the additional range of hands I am stealing blinds with because my ATS has also gone from ~30 to ~42 and even at 50 over the 600nl sample.

Last 10 days

Obv luckbox spot and flop but I fucking deserve it at 600nl.

Full Tilt Poker, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

R0b5ter (BTN): $651
Hero (SB): $600
nailbiter (BB): $350.40
deemac22 (UTG): $855.60
Nicolak (UTG+1): $637
fripfrap (MP): $579
rfp369 (CO): $380.50

Pre-Flop: As Ac dealt to Hero (SB)
deemac22 raises to $18, 3 folds, R0b5ter calls $18, Hero raises to $72, nailbiter folds, deemac22 calls $54, R0b5ter calls $54

Flop: ($222) 8c 3s 2d (3 Players)
Hero bets $128, deemac22 calls $128, R0b5ter folds

Turn: ($478) 6c (2 Players)
Hero bets $150, deemac22 calls $150

River: ($778) 4c (2 Players)
Hero bets $250 and is All-In, deemac22 calls $250

Results: $1,278 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed As Ac (a pair of Aces) and WON $1,275 (+$675 NET)
deemac22 mucked Kh Kd (a pair of Kings) and LOST (-$600 NET)





400nl and 600nl only

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Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

MP2: $534.80
CO: $1,314.80
BTN: $645.40
Hero (SB): $432
BB: $930.70
UTG: $581.40
UTG+1: $194
MP1: $1,380.55

Pre-Flop: 7c 7h dealt to Hero (SB)
2 folds, MP1 raises to $16, MP2 folds, CO calls $16, BTN folds, Hero calls $14, BB folds

Flop: ($52) 7s Qh 8d (3 Players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $25, CO calls $25, Hero raises to $110, MP1 calls $85, CO raises to $300, Hero calls $190, MP1 calls $190

Turn: ($952) As (3 Players)
Hero bets $116 and is All-In, MP1 calls $116, CO calls $116

River: ($1,300) Qs (3 Players - 1 is All-In)
MP1 bets $948.55 and is All-In, CO folds

Results: $1,300 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero mucked 7c 7h (a full house, Sevens full of Queens) and LOST (-$432 NET)
MP1 showed Qc Qd (four of a kind, Queens) and WON $1,297 (+$865 NET)



Mariojr is CO


Dealer: Hand #8930052840
mariojr: 88
Dealer: chislodc wins the pot ($8)
Dealer: Hand #8930056409
mariojr: @&!
Dealer: Raging_Baboon wins the
pot ($14)
Dealer: Hand #8930061679
mariojr: so sick a flop



Also, I just passed the 10k mark at 400nl in under 50k hands


Sunday, November 9, 2008

Irony and FFS

It's ironic that this hand just happened less than 24 hours after I posted some thoughts I had about a lot of people leaking $ from the SB. This has specifically has a live one limping utg so if I hit a big flop and he happens to hand limped a big hand (planning to limp/raise obviously) utg I will make much more money than I would normally completing against a competent player capable of some level of hand reading.




Edit* villain has AA, replayer is fucking up again



This hand below is just disgusting. I literally had just got back from The Beaches for dinner and drinks with ptero and our friends who live next door. I was mayyyybe 20 hands into a single table 600nl session (FTOPS makes the games A++) when I somehow have one of the only hands in my BTN iso open range that can call this moron's ridiculous playmaster line with AA from LP.






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Friday, November 7, 2008

Completing from the SB

When several players limp into tho pot at full ring NLHE you are almost always getting a correct mathematical price to call a quarter of a big blind and see a flop (assuming the BB doesn't open the pot).

The problem is that in NLHE making mathematically correct decisions don't always make a decision optimal, as it pertains to profits.

One of the simplest parts of NLHE to feel during the game is how awkward being out of position is. When you complete from the small blind you have to realize you are going to be out of position 100% of the time. It sounds terrible because it is terrible. Something I picked up along the way that definitely helped my winrate was removing a number of hands from my SB completing range. Hands like A6o and T4o or even hands and strong as A9o I will often fold even after 2-4 limpers. Obviously when 7 8 or 9 players limp then it's just way too good of a price to flop a big hand against so many other players....I said math doesn't always make it right, not never.

You're just not going to flop a strong enough hand enough of the time against limpers ranges to make it worth playing all these small pots out of position. You're going to end up completing then check/folding or lead/folding(on the flop or later streets if/when draws complete) just leaking more money way than you can make back in the pots you win that after completing in the SB (mostly small insignificant pots).




Random hand Fuego liked so I told him I'd post it here. I don't show except for very rare exceptions when I KNOW I'm going to be able to make it profitable, which is very very rare. Good players aren't stupid enough to adjust their view of me from me just showing a hand and fish usually aren't around long enough to set it up so, like I said, it's rare.


AA < AKo obv and betting to induce




Villain is just a standard useless nit with no imagination. Not that I blame him for luckboxing the river, it's just disgusting how many sick beats I've taken in the ~50k hands I've put in at MSNL since the ides of October. Whatever, this is my PokerEV graph at 400nl only so far.


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It's fucking disgusting how much expectation I've lost but for my first ~45k hands i'm beating the games pretty badly considering how bad the MSNL landscape is right now.



This is a hand with a mark I want to go through in more detail than I normally do by just posting a replay of a hand. The bet sizing is as close to perfect as possible (imo obv) other than possibly the flop cbet size but that is my std cbet in that spot 3 ways and consistency is very important in these games.


Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com Hand History Converter

CO: $415.30
BTN: $477
SB: $400
BB: $410.70
UTG: $244.65
UTG+1: $66
Hero (MP): $400

Pre-Flop: 4d 4h dealt to Hero (MP)
2 folds
Hero raises to $8
CO folds
BTN calls $8
SB folds
BB calls $4

Flop: ($26) 2c 4s 8c (3 Players)
BB checks
Hero bets $12
BTN calls $12
BB folds

This is my standard flop cbet which is obviously mathematically incorrect if either of them have a flush draw but because their range is wider than just flush draw and the small cbet induces a raise from worse hands so often that it makes the mathematics, more or less, irrelevant...like i've said before.

Turn: ($50) Ts (2 Players)
Hero checks
BTN bets $34
Hero raises to $102
BTN calls $68

When I small cbet the flop and check the turn, almost every player is going to bet. The best regulars I play with I wouldn't check the turn here because they know how awkward it will be and how capable I am of check-raising them on the turn and forcing them to fold most of their hands, especially now wasted draws.

He bets and I c/r an amount that he can still think he might have fold equity and also so he might call with worse hands or a draw. If he does call with a flush draw on the river (and they miss obv) I've got the most optimal bet sizing for him on the river to get called/raised by worse hands than my set.


River: ($254) 8h (2 Players)

This is an absolutely perfect river. I'm never behind because we'd have got it all in already if I was. The pot is approximately $250 and I've got about $280 effective behind.


There are obviously two options. We can check to induce or bet for value. What I did in this hand is a combination of both.

Thinking back on the way this guy played the hand, he clearly has a drawing hand. It's extremely hard to believe he could stand a check/raise on the turn with 8x or even 99 or TT (better pairs preflop he definitely 3bets otb, considering his HUD stats) and obviously and worse hands. With the information we have from him going into the river it's now obvious that between value betting and checking to induce, checking is the much better option.

Better than checking to induce though, is betting to induce. With a $250 pot on the river and about $280 effective behind, if I check, he might check behind or he might bluff. When he bluffs he rarely shoves or makes a pot size bet, even most fish make their bluff sizing similar to their value bet sizing. So, if he does bluff, I would expect the size to be between 1/2 and 3/4 pot. Both of which are obviously fine, I snap shove and lol...but there's a better option. The fake blocking bet.


If I bet some unusual small amount, it's literally going to tilt the shit out of him. If I had a big hand he would expect me to bet a large amount to get value or to check. If I had an overpair or the counterfit 2 pair (2x4x...definitely in my range) he might expect me to make a wierd like $50 bet into $250 as a blocking bet. By betting small like 1/5 pot on the 8x river, he is going to almost ALWAYS use that card to bluff. I'm literally giving him the impression I want to get to showdown for little money and if I had a big hand my river bet just makes no sense.


When I bet 1/5 pot on the river it's going to be SO frustrating for him to fold missed draws. If I check the river he could bluff or just give up. When I value bet 1/2 to 3/4 pot I'm manipulating the range of hands he puts additional money into the pot with towards a very small range of hand....which I obviously don't want. Making this sort of fake blocking bet on the river is going to tilt the living shit out of everyone from fish to good solid regs....probably often for no other reason than they haven't experience the situation before and they don't know what to do. Sounds perfect to me.






Hero bets $48
BTN raises to $355 and is All-In
Hero calls $230 and is All-In

Results: $810 Pot ($3 Rake)
BTN showed Jc Qc (a pair of Eights) and LOST (-$400 NET)
Hero showed 4d 4h (a full house, Fours full of Eights) and WON $807 (+$407 NET)

AKo < AKo



Edit* AKo < AKss aipf also



1EyedJack (the SB) knows who I am and knows the HJ opener is the mark so when he was tanking after I 5bet shoves over his cold 4b from the blinds I was def expecting him to fold same random air hands he situationally 4b me with. I like the play a lot of he is doing it with air and I'd def take note of the fact he's capable of doing that but it turns out he's just playing straight forward....weak.

600nl fish

5 dimes

[19:12] WW: im gonna 3b you relentlessly today ok?
[19:12] Andrew Song: u can try




*Villain showed QcJs, replayer is a piece of shit and shows the As for some reason.


This was a fucking huge pot with the live one at the only 600nl FR tbl running on FTP. I almost overshoved the turn cuz that Q pairs a lot of his drawing hands but I thought he could fold a lot of his flush draw range if I overshoved so I bet like 2/3 to 3/4 pot i think and he just couldnt fold for such a big pot after he called such a big raise on the flop....fail.



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Somehow I just got all $5k and more back after that huge ds last week and I'll probly get a rakeback payment of $800+ just for this week....ship.



Edit*

This is that hand vs Toby Won. The flop spot is gross for him to raise my utg+1 open cbet on that flop with 2 people left behind him. For me to cbet into 4 people after opening utg+1 he knows my range is skewed now towards overpairs and I know that so for him to raise is fucking gross. I decided on the flop I was going to call the flop and decide after the turn comes a diamond or not. I was definitely worried when he raised the flop in that situation but obviously his combinatorial range is skewed towards two suited diamond cards and we're both deep enough that he can put me in a gross spot raising a flush draw and he knows even if I had AA i can't 3bet the flop. So basically he could have built a pot to whatever size he wants (depending on his flop raise size) and play a potentially 400bb+ pot in position against my hand, which he knows a lot about. Unfortunately for him, he found a WW with a luckbox.


Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Ptero's Birthday and Results

Today is Ptero's Birthday. We've both had 4 figure session on the day and have shut down so as to not fuck up a celebratory day. I made us reservations at this place called The Silo, apparently the "ritziest" (quote from a neighbor) restaurant in Newcastle, Australia. We'll be meeting his brother there for dinner then probably going out to some bars and/or clubs for the night. It's 245pm here and the blunt wrap store closes at 5 which I neeeeed to get to after slacking yesterday. This graph is PokerEV set to the past 7 days. I run bad, then worse, then continue to run bad again. If I ever run at expectation or somehow above....mother of god $$$$$.

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Cold 4bet fishstick

Easily the biggest pot I played today (2k hands approx) and I can't have any more equity than I do in this spot so, obviously, i'm fucked.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

First session after crippling downswing

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I remember reading more than one interview with young, especially some Scandinavians that weren't even 21, high stakes online players that mentioned taking several shots at the next higher level several times before sticking. I'm currently in the process of taking those shots and when/if I get some, all, or more than the $3k im down in expectation and beat those games regularly I'm going to easily post a $25k+ month without rakeback.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Another test

I went to sleep early last night to get up well before noon here (Saturday) for the Friday night games in the US (largest volume of players = largest volume of fish). Within 2 hours I had run AK into AA 3 or 4 times, once at 600nl CO vs BB 48/26/4.5 fish, and lost basically 80%+ of the profit I have made at MSNL on FTP. I am currently running almost $8,000 under expectation within 35k hands. I don't feel like going into my DB to find all the hand so I forget about it quicker, with the help of this new zip (w/Manilla blunts) and some Australian candy.

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